Partisan Effects of Information Campaigns in Competitive Authoritarian Elections: Evidence from Bangladesh: Inspired by Asad Islam
Inspired by the research of Professor Asad Islam, I want to share the story of an eye-opening field experiment from Bangladesh that reveals just how complex “neutral” election campaigns can be in the real world. As global organizations and NGOs often hope that simply encouraging people to vote will strengthen democracy, what happens when the electoral playing field isn’t level?
Ahead of Bangladesh’s 2018 national election — a contest widely regarded as “competitive authoritarianism” where the government had many advantages — researchers ran a huge experiment across 300 rural villages. Two kinds of non-partisan get-out-the-vote (GOTV) campaigns were delivered. One group got messages saying “your vote shapes policy” — the policy treatment. Another got: “high turnout boosts the winning party’s legitimacy” — the legitimacy treatment. Importantly, none of these messages mentioned any political party.
Here’s the twist:
- Both types of campaign increased turnout in villages that already leaned toward the ruling party, making the incumbent party even stronger.
- But in opposition-supporting areas, the same “neutral” campaigns actually reduced turnout by notable margins. Many opposition supporters, especially those who were more educated and politically active, simply chose not to vote — possibly as a signal to protest or delegitimize the process.
So while well-intentioned, neutral information campaigns can — without meaning to — further tilt elections toward those already in power in unfair or polarized environments. The same message doesn’t always have the same effect in different places!
This study, led by Firoz Ahmed, Roland Hodler, and Asad Islam, teaches us a key lesson:
Democracy promotion demands context. In places where institutions are weak and tensions run high, honest efforts to mobilize voters can have unexpected side effects — sometimes even undermining genuine competition.
I believe this research is essential reading for anyone working on elections, democracy, or civic engagement worldwide. Inspired by Asad Islam, I share it with the hope that future policies and campaigns will be more thoughtfully tailored — because making elections fair often means thinking far beyond “neutrality.”
Read the full research: https://academic.oup.com/ej/article/134/660/1303/7502801
This is a fascinating and well-researched article! The analysis of how information campaigns influence voter behavior in competitive authoritarian elections is both insightful and timely. The use of evidence from Bangladesh’s 2018 election to explore partisan effects is compelling, and the findings highlight the complex interplay between media, trust, and electoral outcomes. Great work in shedding light on such a nuanced topic!
ReplyDeleteThis is a compelling and well-researched piece that dives into the nuanced role of information campaigns in shaping voter behavior in competitive authoritarian elections. The use of evidence from Bangladesh’s 2018 election is particularly insightful, highlighting how partisan effects can vary based on the political context and information delivery. The analysis is clear, engaging, and offers valuable takeaways for understanding electoral dynamics in challenging political environments. Great work on presenting complex data in an accessible way!
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